Scientific Method and Economics

昨晚夢到自己走很多路走到腳也爛掉，然後跳到另一個夢是在車上想吐，就醒了，那時開始胃口便不太好。

在twitter掘到這兩篇文章，都是圍繞一個核心的︰

The Limits of Scientific Method In Economics and the World (Roger Martin) 11 Nov 2011

(不過我不同意他說「沒有」經濟學家預見2008年financial crisis，有一些並非思維僵化的人，只是那些人的警告沒被重視)

http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2011/11/10/a-better-blueprint-for-economics/

"Of course, I am not arguing that all science is devoid of novel hypotheses or that all natural and social scientists eschew abductive logic entirely. Rather, I am arguing that we need to reign in fauxscience, which is appropriate only for understanding things that cannot be other than they are, using the tools of deductive and inductive logic. And we need to release the energy of a broader conception of science and innovation that helps us to shape those aspects of our world that can be other than they are, using abductive logic."

The Physics of an Economic Crisis (Emanuel Derman) 3 Nov 2011

http://blogs.reuters.com/great-debate/2011/11/03/the-physics-of-an-economic-crisis/

"The world of markets never matches the ideal circumstances a model assumes. Whenever one uses a model, one should know exactly what has been assumed in its creation and, equally important, exactly what has been swept out of view. A robust model allows a user to qualitatively adjust for those omissions."

"The greatest conceptual danger is idolatry: believing that someone can write down a theory that encapsulates human behavior and thereby free you of the obligation to think for yourself. A model may be entrancing, but no matter how hard you try, you will not be able to breathe life into it. To confuse a model with a theory is to believe that humans obey mathematical rules, and so to invite future disaster."

但，總覺得這類想法其實可以更簡化地表達的。

然後，又想起了愛恩基坦這篇文了︰

Why Socialism? (Albert Einstein) 1949

http://monthlyreview.org/2009/05/01/why-socialism

"We should be on our guard not to overestimate science and scientific methods when it is a question of human problems; and we should not assume that experts are the only ones who have a right to express themselves on questions affecting the organization of society."

"I have now reached the point where I may indicate briefly what to me constitutes the essence of the crisis of our time. It concerns the relationship of the individual to society. The individual has become more conscious than ever of his dependence upon society. But he does not experience this dependence as a positive asset, as an organic tie, as a protective force, but rather as a threat to his natural rights, or even to his economic existence. Moreover, his position in society is such that the egotistical drives of his make-up are constantly being accentuated, while his social drives, which are by nature weaker, progressively deteriorate. All human beings, whatever their position in society, are suffering from this process of deterioration."